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两独立样本率差置信区间

两样本率分别用 \(\hat{p}_1\)\(\hat{p}_2\) 表示,两组样本量分别用 \(n_1\)\(n_2\) 表示。

Pearson's Chi-Square

\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \\ \text{U} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \end{align} \]

置信区间宽度:

\[ d = \operatorname{min}\left(\text{U}, 1\right) - \operatorname{max}\left(\text{L}, -1\right) \]
样本量的闭式解的分类讨论

\(k = n_1 / n_2\)

\(\text{L} < -1, \text{U} \leqslant 1\)
\[ d = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} - (-1) \]

可解出:

\[ \begin{align} n_2 & = \frac{z_{1-\alpha/2}^2 \left[\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)/k + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)\right]}{\left[d-(\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2)-1\right]^2} \\ n_1 & = k n_2 \end{align} \]
\(\text{L} < -1, \text{U} > 1\)
\[ d = 1 - (-1) = 2 \]

\(d\) 与样本量无关,无法确定样本量。

\(\text{L} \geqslant -1, \text{U} \leqslant 1\)
\[ d = 2 \cdot z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \]

可解出:

\[ \begin{align} n_2 & = \frac{4 \cdot z_{1-\alpha/2}^2 \left[\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)/k + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)\right]}{d^2} \\ n_1 & = k n_2 \end{align} \]
\(\text{L} \geqslant -1, \text{U} > 1\)
\[ d = 1 - \left( \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \right), \]

可解出:

\[ \begin{align} n_2 & = \frac{z_{1-\alpha/2}^2 \left[\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)/k + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)\right]}{\left[d+(\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2)-1\right]^2} \\ n_1 & = k n_2 \end{align} \]
\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = -1 \\ \text{U} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \end{align} \]

从样本率差到置信上限的距离:

\[ d = \operatorname{min}\left(\text{U}, 1\right) - (\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2) \]
样本量的闭式解的分类讨论

\(k = n_1 / n_2\)

\(\text{U} \leqslant 1\)
\[ d = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} - (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \]

可解出:

\[ \begin{align} n_2 & = \frac{z_{1-\alpha}^2 \left[\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)/k + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)\right]}{d^2} \\ n_1 & = k n_2 \end{align} \]
\(\text{U} > 1\)
\[ d = 1 - (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \]

\(d\) 与样本量无关,无法确定样本量。

\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \\ \text{U} & = 1 \end{align} \]

从样本率差到置信下限的距离:

\[ d = (\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2) - \operatorname{max}\left(\text{L}, -1\right) \]
样本量的闭式解的分类讨论

\(k = n_1 / n_2\)

\(\text{L} < -1\)
\[ d = \hat{p_1} - \hat{p}_2 - (-1) \]

\(d\) 与样本量无关,无法确定样本量。

\(\text{L} \geqslant -1\)
\[ d = (\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2) - \left( \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \right), \]

可解出:

\[ \begin{align} n_2 & = \frac{z_{1-\alpha}^2 \left[\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)/k + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)\right]}{d^2} \\ n_1 & = k n_2 \end{align} \]

Yate's Chi-Square with Continuity Correction

\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} - \frac{1}{2} \left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right) \\ \text{U} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha/2} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} + \frac{1}{2} \left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right) \end{align} \]

置信区间宽度:

\[ d = \operatorname{min}\left(\text{U}, 1\right) - \operatorname{max}\left(\text{L}, -1\right) \]
\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = -1 \\ \text{U} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 + z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} + \frac{1}{2} \left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right) \end{align} \]

从样本率差到置信上限的距离:

\[ d = \operatorname{min}\left(\text{U}, 1\right) - (\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2) \]
\[ \begin{align} \text{L} & = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 - z_{1 - \alpha} \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} - \frac{1}{2} \left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right) \\ \text{U} & = 1 \end{align} \]

从样本率差到置信下限的距离:

\[ d = (\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2) - \operatorname{max}\left(\text{L}, -1\right) \]